THE OLIVE GROVE IS ACCUSING THE HARD CLIMATIC CONDITIONS OF THE LAST 24 MONTHS
The accumulated deficit of water in the soil, together with the extreme temperatures registered in the months of June and July, they reduce harvest expectations in Spain to an amount that would oscillate between 950.000 Y 1.150.000 tons of olive oil, a forecast subject to the evolution of rains and temperatures in the months of September and October. This is stated by the Spanish Association of Municipalities of Olivo (AEMO), showing his pessimism regarding the olive oil harvest in Spain for next year.
According to this Association, the Spanish olive grove is experiencing the harsh climatic conditions experienced in recent 24 months and the deficit of water in the soil breaks negative records that cause the availability of humidity to be zero in recent weeks, what keeps the olive grove dry (66% of the total) in a state of borderline stress. All this is the result of the “dramatic balance” between accumulated precipitation well below the average and maximum evapotranspiration spurred by a few months of June and July., that have marked historical maximum temperatures.
The association has determined the harvest forecast in a "rational and empirical" way at the same time, using a double data source. First, the entity has tried to model the harvest forecast based on a historical series of climatic variables that considers the last five seasons, and statistically correlating these variables with the real oil production that each harvest produced. So, The variables considered have been the temperature regime and evapotranspiration in the months of May and June - decisive moment of flowering and fruit setting on the tree-; accumulated rainfall between 1 March and 30 October (key periods in fruit quantity and oil formation); Y, by last, the previous year's production, always conditioned by the so-called turn of the olive tree. Secondly, has tested different cooperatives, producer associations, certain farmers, master farms and various experts from the different regions of the Spanish olive grove, what to date 15 July have thrown their impression on the harvest forecast, always in relation to the previous campaign.
Fruit of this double prospecting, AEMO has concluded that the harvest 2017/2018 will reach a maximum of 1.150.000 tons and a minimum of 950.000, as long as the rainfall in the months of September and October is around the average, understanding as such the interval between 60 Y 80 liters / m2 for southern Spain.
In his opinion, "Prolonging the drought below these values would be catastrophic for the critical lipogenesis phase that will take place in these months, while, Conversely, a cool and wet early fall could boost production - always within, according to our calculations, of the indicated interval ".
